Anderson, Thomas R. (Author)
Hawkins, Ed (Author)
Jones, Philip D. (Author)
Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or “core” physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
...More
Article
Edwards, Paul N.;
(1996)
Global comprehensive models in politics and policymaking
(/isis/citation/CBB001181687/)
Article
Morgan, Ruth A.;
(2013)
Histories for an Uncertain Future: Environmental History and Climate Change
(/isis/citation/CBB001201446/)
Article
Edwards, Paul N.;
(2011)
History of Climate Modeling
(/isis/citation/CBB001221290/)
Article
Weart, Spencer R.;
(2010)
The Idea of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change in the 20th Century
(/isis/citation/CBB001221299/)
Article
Bruce Tranter;
Libby Lester;
(2015)
Climate Patriots? Concern Over Climate Change and Other Environmental Issues in Australia
(/isis/citation/CBB974055589/)
Chapter
Edwards, Paul N.;
(2002)
Modellen, daten, ungewissheit und die politik in der weltweiten klimawissenschaft; (Models, data, suspense and the policy in the global climate science)
(/isis/citation/CBB001181673/)
Article
Rudy Michael Baum;
(2019)
Taking the Earth's Temperature: 200 years of research has established why the Earth is as warm as it is and how burning fossil fuels is making it warmer
(/isis/citation/CBB533391308/)
Chapter
Glen, William;
(2002)
A Triptych to Serendip: Prematurity and Resistance to Discovery in the Earth Sciences
(/isis/citation/CBB000202420/)
Book
Fleming, James Rodger;
(2010)
Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control
(/isis/citation/CBB001020726/)
Article
Nierenberg, Nicolas;
Tschinkel, Walter R.;
Tschinkel, Victoria J.;
(2010)
Early Climate Change Consensus at the National Academy: The Origins and Making of Changing Climate
(/isis/citation/CBB001022609/)
Article
James Powell;
(2017)
Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming
(/isis/citation/CBB664665682/)
Book
Jeroen Oomen;
(2021)
Imagining Climate Engineering: Dreaming of the Designer Climate
(/isis/citation/CBB894445522/)
Article
Moser, Susanne C.;
(2010)
Communicating Climate Change: History, Challenges, Process and Future Directions
(/isis/citation/CBB001221298/)
Article
Fleming, James Rodger;
Jankovic, Vladimir;
(2011)
Introduction: Revisiting Klima
(/isis/citation/CBB001034571/)
Article
Shulman, Peter A.;
(2010)
Linking Energy and Climate (before 1974)
(/isis/citation/CBB001221291/)
Article
Randalls, Samuel;
(2010)
History of the 2ºC Climate Target
(/isis/citation/CBB001221297/)
Chapter
Emily O'Gorman;
James Beattie;
Matthew Henry;
(2014)
Epilogue: Future Research Directions
(/isis/citation/CBB976528093/)
Chapter
Meg Parsons;
(2014)
Destabilizing Narrative of the "Triumph of the White Man over the Tropics": Scientific Knowledge and the Management of Race in Queensland, 1900-1940
(/isis/citation/CBB489182195/)
Chapter
Emily O'Gorman;
(2014)
"Soothsaying" or "Science?": H.D. Russell, Meteorology, and Environmental Knowledge of Rivers in Colonial Australia
(/isis/citation/CBB380777850/)
Chapter
Christian O'Brien;
(2014)
Imported Understandings: Calendars, Weather, and Climate in Tropical Australia, 1870s-1940s
(/isis/citation/CBB599664589/)
Be the first to comment!