Article ID: CBB779237397

Uniform probability in cosmology (2023)

unapi

Problems with uniform probabilities on an infinite support show up in contemporary cosmology. This paper focuses on the context of inflation theory, where it complicates the assignment of a probability measure over pocket universes. The measure problem in cosmology, whereby it seems impossible to pick out a uniquely well-motivated measure, is associated with a paradox that occurs in standard probability theory and crucially involves uniformity on an infinite sample space. This problem has been discussed by physicists, albeit without reference to earlier work on this topic. The aim of this article is both to introduce philosophers of probability to these recent discussions in cosmology and to familiarize physicists and philosophers working on cosmology with relevant foundational work by Kolmogorov, de Finetti, Jaynes, and other probabilists. As such, the main goal is not to solve the measure problem, but to clarify the exact origin of some of the current obstacles. The analysis of the assumptions going into the paradox indicates that there exist multiple ways of dealing consistently with uniform probabilities on infinite sample spaces. Taking a pluralist stance towards the mathematical methods used in cosmology shows there is some room for progress with assigning probabilities in cosmological theories.

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Authors & Contributors
Bokulich, Alisa
Bussotti, Paolo
Capaccioli, Massimo
Fano, Vincenzo
Greaves, H.
Horgan, Terence
Journals
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
American Scientist
Annals of Science: The History of Science and Technology
Archives Internationales d'Histoire des Sciences
Endeavour: Review of the Progress of Science
Philosophy of Science
Publishers
Carocci Editore
Oxford University Press
Cambridge University Press
Aracne
Govardhan Hill Publishing
Mimesis
Concepts
Philosophy of science
Physics
Universe
Cosmology
Probability and statistics
Quantum mechanics
People
Bohr, Niels Henrik David
Boltzmann, Ludwig
Einstein, Albert
Feyerabend, Paul K.
Hawking, Stephen W.
Manchak, John Byron
Time Periods
20th century
21st century
Modern
Early modern
19th century
20th century, early
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