Article ID: CBB401173230

Is cancer a matter of luck? (2021)

unapi

In 2015, Tomasetti and Vogelstein published a paper in Science containing the following provocative statement: “… only a third of the variation in cancer risk among tissues is attributable to environmental factors or inherited predispositions. The majority is due to “bad luck,” that is, random mutations arising during DNA replication in normal, noncancerous stem cells.” The paper—and perhaps especially this rather coy reference to “bad luck”—became a flash point for a series of letters and reviews, followed by replies and yet further counterpoints. In this paper, I critically assess Tomasetti and Vogelstein's argument, discuss the meaning of “luck” (or, better: “chance”) in the context of the debate, and use this case study to address larger questions about methodological criteria for causal explanations of population level patterns in biomedicine.

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Authors & Contributors
Timmermann, Carsten
Lisa Lindén
Tai, Sara J.
Handerer, Fritz
Talbot, Chris
Ann Hui Ching
Concepts
Biomedicine
Cancer; tumors
Philosophy of medicine
Causality
Chance
Mutation
Time Periods
21st century
20th century, late
20th century
20th century, early
19th century
Ancient
Places
United States
England
Singapore
Wales
Sweden
Japan
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