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Article ID: CBB000830396

Statistics Is Not Enough: Revisiting Ronald A. Fisher's Critique (1936) of Mendel's Experimental Results (1866) (2007)

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences
Volume: 38
Pages: 618--626

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Error Philosophy of science Reasoning in science Heredity Probability and statistics Experiments and experimentation Methodology of science; scientific method 20th century, early 19th century Mendel, Gregor Johann Fisher, Ronald Aylmer

This paper is concerned with the role of rational belief change theory in the philosophical understanding of experimental error. Today, philosophers seek insight about error in the investigation of specific experiments, rather than in general theories. Nevertheless, rational belief change theory adds to our understanding of just such cases: R. A. Fisher's criticism of Mendel's experiments being a case in point. After an historical introduction, the main part of this paper investigates Fisher's paper from the point of view of rational belief change theory: what changes of belief about Mendel's experiment does Fisher go through and with what justification. It leads to surprising insights about what Fisher had done right and wrong, and, more generally, about the limits of statistical methods in detecting error.

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Description “This paper is concerned with the role of rational belief change theory in the philosophical understanding of experimental error [and especially] about the limits of statistical methods in detecting error.” (from the abstract)

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